2026 Steel Kev Lag Luam Outlook
Xav txog cov kev taw qhia txoj cai, kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam, thiab lub ntiaj teb ib puag ncig, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel yuav nkag mus rau theem tshiab ntawm kev tsim kho thiab rov ua haujlwm zoo hauv xyoo 2026, raws li lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm "tswj kev tsim khoom thiab kev txhim kho zoo." Lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam yog hloov pauv los ntawm kev nrhiav kev nthuav dav kom ua tiav "kev txhim kho kom zoo thiab tsim nyog kom muaj nuj nqis loj hlob." Cov kab kos hauv qab no qhia txog cov tsav tsheb tseem ceeb thiab cov teeb meem tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam steel hauv 2026, pab koj nkag siab sai sai rau tag nrho cov duab ntawm kev lag luam.
Supply thiab Demand Structure
Khoom Muag:Muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm txoj cai tswjfwm, kev txwv ib puag ncig, thiab kev lag luam tus kheej -kev qhuab qhia, kev tsim cov hlau tsis zoo yuav tsum tau poob mus ntxiv. Ntau lub koom haum kwv yees tias cov khoom siv hlau tsis zoo hauv xyoo 2026 yuav yog nyob nruab nrab ntawm 931 lab thiab 960 lab tons, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo txo ntawm 1.25% mus rau 3.1%. Cov kev cai hloov lub peev xwm nruj dua, kev txwv kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, thiab kev ua "tiv thaiv- tshiab" yuav ua rau muaj kev tawm ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm, thiab kev lag luam concentration yuav tsum nce ntxiv.
Xav Tau Sab:Tag nrho cov ntim yog nyob rau hauv siab, tab sis cov qauv sib txawv yog qhov tseem ceeb. Kev thov rau cov hlau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev tseem pheej yig, tab sis kev poob qis yog nqaim; steel thov nyob rau hauv infrastructure tseem resilient; thiab steel kev thov hauv kev tsim khoom tswj kev loj hlob, dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev thov. Tag nrho cov kev thov steel nyob rau hauv 2026 yuav tsum muaj kwv yees li 800 lab tons, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo txo li ntawm 1%, nrog rau qhov feem ntawm steel xav tau nyob rau hauv kev tsim khoom ntxiv.
Nqe Trends Steel cov nqi yuav tsum tau hloov pauv dav hauv qab, nrog kev hloov pauv me ntsis ntawm tus nqi tag nrho. Cov nqi cog lus tseem ceeb rau rebar thiab kub - dov kauj yuav tsum pauv ntawm 2950-3400 yuan / ton thiab 3050-3550 yuan / ton, feem. Tus nqi hloov pauv yuav cuam tshuam los ntawm kev xa khoom thiab kev xav tau sib npaug, kev hloov kho txoj cai, kev hloov pauv tus nqi, thiab ib puag ncig sab nraud. Kev saib xyuas yuav tsum tau them rau qhov nrawm ntawm kev siv txoj cai thiab lub zog ntawm kev thov rov qab los.
Cov Nqi thiab Cov Nyiaj Tau Los
Hais txog cov nqi raw khoom, cov nqi hlau ore xav tias yuav poob qis, cov nqi coking thee yuav tsum hloov pauv mus rau qhov ntau, thiab cov nqi hlau seem yuav tsum nyob ruaj khov. Zuag qhia tag nrho, tus nqi ib tuj ntawm cov hlau xav tias yuav poob qis, tab sis cov nqi ib puag ncig tau nce. Kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig tau xav tias yuav rov qab los, tab sis xav tias yuav muaj qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb. Kev lag luam nrog cov txiaj ntsig zoo thiab zoo -tsim siab- cov khoom lag luam kawg yuav muaj kev sib tw ntau dua, nrog rau kev lag luam nruab nrab cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho ib tuj ntawm cov hlau yuav tsum nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm 150-200 yuan.
Txoj cai thiab ib puag ncig sab nraud
Txoj cai hauv tsev:Tsoomfwv yuav txuas ntxiv siv txoj cai tswjfwm kev siv nyiaj txiag thiab txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag tsis txaus, tsom mus rau "kev txhim kho kev loj hlob thiab tiv thaiv kev cuam tshuam," thiab txhawb siab - kev loj hlob zoo ntawm kev lag luam los ntawm kev ntsuas xws li kev muaj peev xwm thiab kev tso tawm, kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis, thiab kev hloov pauv ntsuab. Qhov tshwj xeeb ntxiv tshiab - lub hom phiaj daim ntawv cog lus yuav ncav cuag 4.8 trillion yuan, muab kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag rau kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab lwm yam haujlwm. Kev thov hlau los ntawm kev lag luam xws li tshuab, tsheb (tshwj xeeb yog lub zog tshiab), kev tsim nkoj, thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav nyob twj ywm, pab ua kom qhov sib txawv ntawm kev tsim kho. Lub zog tseem ceeb -2-3. Kev faib ua feem ntawm cov hlau siv hauv kev tsim khoom tau nce mus txog 50% thiab tseem yuav nce ntxiv -3.
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb:Kev tiv thaiv kev lag luam nce ntxiv thiab kev ua raws cai ntawm EU carbon tariffs tau ua rau tus nqi siab rau Suav hlau xa tawm. Lub caij no, kev txwv kev lag luam los ntawm cov teb chaws xws li Is Nrias teb thiab Qaib Cov Txwv yuav cuam tshuam rau kev xa tawm. Txawm li cas los xij, Suav steel tseem muaj kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab cov qauv xa tawm yuav hloov mus rau qib siab - cov khoom kawg. Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Hlau tau kwv yees tias kev thov steel thoob ntiaj teb yuav loj hlob nruab nrab los ntawm 1.3% hauv 2026.
Kev Tsim Kho Kev Lag Luam
Accelerated Green Transition:Raws li lub hom phiaj ntawm carbon peaking thiab carbon neutrality, ntsuab thiab qis -carbon kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv cov steel kev lag luam tau dhau los ua ib qho kev inevitable. Daim ntawv thov cov thev naus laus zis xws li ultra- qis emission retrofitting thiab hydrogen metallurgy yuav ua kom nrawm, nce nqi ib puag ncig thiab tsim kom muaj kev lag luam ntsuab.
High-kawg thiab kev tsim khoom ntse:Kev kho dua tshiab hauv kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tau siab -kev ua tau zoo, siab -tus nqi- ntxiv steel. Cov lag luam yuav nce R&D peev, tsav cov khoom tsim tawm mus rau qib siab - kawg thiab cov khoom sib txawv. Tib lub sijhawm, kev hloov pauv digital yuav dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm thiab txo cov nqi.
Kev sib koom ua ke nrawm nrawm thiab tau txais: Raws li kev taw qhia los ntawm kev tiv thaiv - cov cai tswjfwm thiab kev tswj hwm kev tswj hwm, cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum koom ua ke me me thiab nruab nrab- muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, nce kev lag luam concentration thiab kev sib cog lus, tsim cov qauv kev lag luam ntawm "kev lag luam ua thawj coj, nrog kev txhawb nqa los ntawm 2} cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab.
Xaus
Hauv xyoo 2026, kev lag luam steel yuav tawm mus rau nws cov qauv kev loj hlob dav dav thiab nkag mus rau lub voj voog tshiab uas yog "tswj muaj peev xwm, txhim kho cov qauv, txhim kho tus nqi, thiab txhawb kev loj hlob ntsuab." Rau cov lag luam, tus yuam sij rau kev vam meej yog nyob rau hauv: nyob rau hauv, ua raws li lub teb chaws muaj peev xwm tswj thiab ib puag ncig cov cai, nce R&D peev nyob rau hauv high- khoom kawg, thiab embracing digital thiab ntse transformation; sab nraud, hloov pauv cov tswv yim ua lag luam txawv teb chaws, hloov ntawm "tus nqi sib tw" mus rau "tus nqi tsim tawm," tsom mus rau kev lag luam niche thiab siab -cov khoom ntsuab kawg, thiab txo cov kev pheej hmoo sab nraud los ntawm kev ua haujlwm sib txawv thiab ua raws.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, hauv 2026, kev lag luam steel yuav nyob rau theem ntawm cov khoom tsis muaj zog-xav tau qhov sib npaug, nrog rau txoj cai tswj hwm thiab kev lag luam tshem tawm kev sib koom ua ke. Kev lag luam tag nrho yuav nthuav tawm cov yam ntxwv ntawm "ruaj khov tab sis txo qis tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm, kev ua kom zoo dua qub thiab kho dua tshiab, thiab cov nyiaj tau los tsawg dua." Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau kev tswj hwm tus nqi, kev txhim kho cov khoom lag luam, thiab kev hloov pauv ntsuab kom tiv nrog qhov nyuaj thiab puas tau - hloov pauv ib puag ncig kev lag luam.
